The government of Bangladesh has set ambitious revenue collection targets for the fiscal years 2024-25 and 2025-26, aiming to gather Tk 5872 billion and Tk 7097 billion, respectively. The strategy hinges on enhancing digitalization and simplifying tax procedures for both businesses and individuals.
The focus will be on direct taxes and VAT to raise more revenue. In addition to expanding the tax net and increasing the capacity of tax officials, exercises will be carried out to rationalise the current culture of widespread tax exemptions and to bring in heightened transparency in the budgetary discourse.
As per the Medium Term Macroeconomic Policy Statement (2023-24 to 2025-26) of the Finance Division of Finance Ministry, some Tk 5343 billion will come from the tax revenue sector in 2024-25 fiscal and Tk 6463 billion in 2025-26.
In the next two fiscal years, the National Board of Revenue (NBR) will provide Tk 5095 billion and Tk 6171 billion.
From the Income Tax wing, the projected collection will be Tk 1753 billion for the next fiscal, and Tk 2123 billion for 2025-26 fiscal. Collection from the import duties will be Tk 1511 billion and Tk 1830 billion respectively.
From VAT and Supplementary Duties, the revenue collection will be Tk 1831 billion and Tk 2218 billion respectively.
The non-NBR tax for 2024-25 and 2025-26 will be Tk 248 billion and Tk 292 billion respectively. Non-tax revenue collection will be Tk 529 billion and Tk 634 billion respectively.
The target for the running 2023-24 fiscal is Tk 5000 billion with Tk 4500 billion from tax revenue. Of the total amount, Tk 4300 billion will come from NBR through Tk 1480 billion from income tax, Tk 1275 billion from import duties, Tk 1545 billion from VAT and Supplementary duties. Some Tk 200 billion will be collected from the non-NBR sector while Tk 500 billion from non-tax revenue sector.
According to the Medium Term Macroeconomic Policy Statement, revenue outturns estimated for 2023-24 and projection for the next two years show high elasticity and buoyancy, implying robustness in revenue mobilisation in the medium term.
It mentions that among the tax and non-tax parts of the revenue, the tax revenue is forecasted to be more buoyant and elastic than the non-tax part.
The elasticity data shows that the overall revenue is projected to grow 1.65 times higher than the nominal GDP in FY 2025-26.
As per the statement, the revenue elasticity of GDP for the 2023-24 fiscal is 1.28 times higher than the last fiscal while it is projected to be 1.40 times higher in the next 2024-25 fiscal year.
The tax revenue elasticity of GDP will be 1.33 times higher in the current fiscal while it will be 1.50 times higher in the next fiscal and 1.66 times higher in 2025-26 fiscal year.
The non-tax revenue elasticity of GDP for the running fiscal will be 0.92 times higher in the current fiscal, 0.47 times higher in the next fiscal year, and 1.57 times higher in 2025-26 fiscal year.
