Polls opened on Sunday in Japan’s tightest election in years, with new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and his juggernaut Liberal Democratic Party facing potentially their worst result since 2009.
Opinion polls suggest the conservative LDP and its junior coalition partner risk falling short of a majority, a result that could deal a knockout blow to Ishiba.
The 67-year-old former defence minister took office and called a snap election after being narrowly selected last month to lead the LDP, which has governed Japan for almost all of the past seven decades.
But voters in the world’s fourth-largest economy have been rankled by rising prices and the fallout from a party slush fund scandal that helped sink previous premier Fumio Kishida.
“We want to start afresh as a fair, just and sincere party, and seek your mandate,” Ishiba told supporters at a rally on Saturday.
He has pledged to revitalise depressed rural regions and to address the “quiet emergency” of Japan’s falling population through family-friendly policies such as flexible working hours.
But he has rowed back his position on issues including allowing married couples to take separate surnames. He also named only two women ministers in his cabinet.
The self-confessed security policy “geek” has backed the creation of a regional military alliance along the lines of NATO to counter China, although he has since cautioned it would “not happen overnight”.
A poll on Friday by the Yomiuri Shimbun daily suggested that the LDP and its coalition partner Komeito might struggle to get the 233 lower house seats needed for a majority.
Ishiba has set this threshold as his objective, and missing it would undermine his position in the LDP andmean finding other coalition partners or leading a minority government.
Local media speculated that Ishiba could potentially even resign immediately to take responsibility, becoming Japan’s shortest-serving prime minister in the post-war period.
The current record is held by Naruhiko Higashikuni who served for 54 days — four days more than British leader Liz Truss in 2022 — just after Japan’s 1945 defeat in World War II.
“The situation is extremely severe,” Ishiba reportedly said on the stump Friday.
In many districts, LDP candidates are neck-and-neck with those from the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) — the second-biggest in parliament — led by popular former prime minister Yoshihiko Noda.
“The LDP’s politics is all about quickly implementing policies for those who give them loads of cash,” Noda told his supporters on Saturday.
“But those in vulnerable positions, who can’t offer cash, have been ignored,” he added, accusing the LDP-led government of offering insufficient support for survivors of an earthquake in central Japan.
Noda’s stance “is sort of similar to the LDP’s. He is basically a conservative,” Masato Kamikubo, a political scientist at Ritsumeikan University, told AFP.
