The Paris Agreement on climate change is a decade old this month. While there has been progress – with new net zero pledges and new technological solutions, we are still grappling with the reality that global temperatures continue to soar. 2023 was the hottest year ever on record.
This alarming trend poses grave consequences for the world’s 45 Least Developed Countries (LDCs). These countries bear the brunt of the burden from the climate crisis even though they are the lowest carbon emitters on the planet. According to the World Bank, over the last decade, the world’s poorest countries have been hit by nearly eight times as many natural disasters, compared with three decades ago, resulting in a three-fold increase in economic damage.
Changing weather patterns, increasing droughts, flooding, crop failures, deforestation and sea level rise matter hugely to LDCs, which are largely agricultural economies. When climate change threatens farming productivity, the overall outlook for the people in these poor countries becomes even bleaker.
Policymakers meeting in Azerbaijan later this month for the United Nations Climate Change Summit (COP 29) urgently need to deliver on the financial, technical, and capacity building support that LDCs need to address the climate crisis. There is precious little time left.
Delivering results in these core areas with financing could make a difference:
Scale up early warning systems
Firstly, we need to scale up early warning systems linked to satellites and weather stations that can help forecast severe weather events such as cyclones, flooding, and droughts. Despite evidence that getting clear information on time can save both lives and livelihoods, the current capacity for monitoring and forecasting across Africa is low and in need of investment.
Early warning systems also need engagement from communities for communication and coordination and the technical training of local stakeholders to maintain and monitor them. In Fatick, in Senegal, for example, early results of a collaborative pilot project to forecast extreme heat show increased awareness and behaviour changes among the community and improved preparedness by the local health system.
Leverage cutting edge technology
Secondly, we need to leverage technology such as boosting access to climate modelling powered by artificial intelligence and big data analytics. This can provide important insights into long-term climate trends, identify patterns, and predict future changes. CLIMTAG-Africa, which is part of the Copernicus Climate Change Service, currently offers climate information for three African countries: Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia with plans to expand it further.
The tool provides users with accessible climate information to support decisions about what crops to plant and when to plant them – vital to economies where small-scale subsistence farming is the norm. Similarly, it is about replicating and coming up with cost-efficient and relevant impact technological solutions in agriculture so salt-water resistant strains of rice can be planted in countries affected by sea level rise such as The Gambia.
Provide real-time weather data
Thirdly, we need to invest in low-cost, high impact innovations to provide real-time weather data and advice that can be readily shared. In Mali, the ‘MaliCrop’ App has become an essential resource for farmers in this drought-affected country. By accessing the app, farmers can receive forecasts and information in French and several local languages about weather predictions and even crop disease risks.
The project is used regularly by over 110,000 people. However, although mobile phone penetration is increasing in low-income countries, mobile infrastructure, and internet connectivity, particularly in rural areas, is lagging behind and is a barrier to access.
These are promising examples which will only have an impact if properly scaled up and supported. However, acutely limited access to finance remains a major obstacle especially for the LDCs. According to the 2023 UNFCCC Adaptation Finance Gap Update, the costs of adaptation for LDCs is estimated at US$ 25bn per year – or 2 per cent of their GDP. Actual financing to these already fiscally constrained and largely highly indebted countries falls woefully short of what is needed.
A decade ago, COP 21 in Paris offered LDCs much hope. Since then, the world’s poorest and most vulnerable countries are no better off in terms of financing. However, advancements in technology, including AI, provide a glimmer of hope. To deliver results for LDCs, COP 29 must commit to more funding, scaled-up technology transfer, strengthened partnerships and relentless capacity-building.
The people in the poorest and most vulnerable countries cannot continue to absorb the hits wrought by the developed world’s carbon emissions. The choice is clear, agreement on an action agenda for LDCs or a COP-out where everyone loses.
Deodat Maharaj is the Managing Director, United Nations Technology Bank for the Least Developed Countries and can be reached at: deodat.maharaj@un.org
