China is loosening curbs in the wake of mass protests over its zero-COVID policy, but exiting the controversial strategy hinges on a key stumbling block: vaccinating more seniors.
Thousands hit the streets nationwide last week in an unprecedented challenge to almost three years of some of the world’s strictest virus measures, which hammered the world’s No. 2 economy and put it on track for its lowest annual growth in decades.
In the wake of the unrest, pandemic czar Sun Chulan signaled that the country was entering a “new situation” with outbreaks of the less-lethal omicron variant. Her comments opened the door for major cities, including Beijing and southern manufacturing hub Guangzhou, to loosen curbs as daily infections slipped from record highs.
China long defended mass lockdowns and other curbs as taking pressure off its fragile health care system and keeping the official death rate far below those of some other countries, including the U.S. and U.K.
But now it is playing catch-up trying to protect the most vulnerable citizens, including those over age 80. Although more than 90% of China’s 1.4 billion people have had at least two shots, not even 70% of those over 80 are double-vaccinated and just 40% of them have received booster shots.
Estimates of how many people could die in a full-fledged reopening have ranged from 1.3 million to 2 million, so authorities have said they would focus on undervaccinated seniors.
Citing sources, Chinese media outlet Caixin reported that the government aims to raise the two-shot rate among those 80 and older to 90% by January, up from 66% at the end of November.
“This push to vaccinate the vast majority of the elderly in the next two months … is going to be very significant,” said Dali Yang, a University of Chicago professor who studies the politics of China’s development and governance. “It is likely Chinese authorities will pursue the vaccination of the elderly with the same zeal they had for pursuing zero COVID over the past two years.”
But there are myriad challenges.
Many seniors with health problems fear side effects, and some doctors are advising patients not to get jabbed with China’s homegrown vaccines, which some studies suggest are less effective than foreign-made shots.
Beijing has so far resisted using vaccines not produced by domestic suppliers including Sinovac and state-owned Sinopharm.
“The main reason I’m still unvaccinated is due to my family doctor’s advice,” said Summer Li, a 70-year-old retired government worker, adding that she may wait until a foreign-made jab is available. “The doctors advised me that it may not be good to take domestic vaccinations, as I have chronic medical issues. … If there’s no compulsory order, then I won’t get vaccinated.”
A doctor at a hospital in eastern Shandong province said pushing hesitant seniors is no easy task.
“Some elderly people have a lot of chronic illnesses or they don’t want to do it because they’re too old, so it’s hard to force them,” the physician told Nikkei Asia. “We can only tell them to avoid leaving their house and stay in as much as possible.”
And while local officials are following Beijing’s lead on easing, they also fear that fresh outbreaks or deaths could cost them their jobs.
The government “hasn’t sent anybody to come and give the shots,” said a nursing home employee in the northern port city of Qingdao. “Because people here are so old, no one dares to vaccinate them. Once there is an accident, no one can guarantee what will happen. Some elders even went out to get the vaccines, but they were refused because they have chronic diseases.”
China’s bid to quash even small outbreaks may have been effective especially in the early stages of the pandemic, but the strategy has now served up a major challenge.
“It was not crucial to vaccinate the elderly because China had largely eliminated the virus by the summer of 2020,” said the University of Chicago’s Yang, adding that vaccine makers warned against shots for ill patients. “So that gave a lot of room for people who worried about the quality and adverse effects of the vaccine. As a result, many elderly people avoided vaccines.”
The government has now switched from trying to convince citizens of the severe risks posed by COVID to playing down the dangers.
But that may not help convince skeptical seniors, since shots don’t guarantee protection from an infection.
“If they have a vaccine that can guarantee you don’t catch COVID, and with fewer side effects, then of course I’ll take it,” said Li, the retired civil servant. “But the omicron death rate is very low even if you’re unvaccinated, so now it doesn’t matter if you get jabbed or not.”
Ck Tan and Grace Li, Nikkei staff writers
