Western media is lamenting about the “mutiny” by the Wagner force which they hoped would topple Putin. However, Putin is still in power and Wagner seems to have slipped as a potential threat to the Russian supremo. The Wagner story is complex as it shows how the many forces including clandestine ones are involved in the Ukraine war on both sides.
Only 8000 against the entire Russian army?
Yevgeny Prigozhin, of the Wagner group mobilized around 8,000 men of arms to march on Moscow. He was calling it “a march for justice” and hoping to capture the Russian defense ministry in Moscow. Additionally, he demanded the resignation of the defense minister, Sergei Shoigu and chief of Russia’s armed forces, Valery Gerasimov.
Wagner forces were led towards Moscow by it’s other founder Dmitri Utkin but were stopped around 120 kilomters from Moscow. Prigozhin himself never moved from his HQ at Rostov-on-Don. He tried calling old friend Putin who refused to talk to him.
Prigozhin suddenly found himself without the promised support, no mass movement, his army facing certain annihilation and his family in deep danger. So he sought the support of old ally Alexander Lukashenko, the president of Belarus to plead on his behalf..
With Putin hovering in the background, a deal was struck. Prigozhin and the 8,000 men he brought with him, would be going into exile in Belarus. Treason charges would be dropped. The rest of the Wagner army, around 12,000, were offered contracts with the Russian army or exit to home. Many have signed up.
A six month old conspiracy?
Prigozhin had reportedly been planning this move for months, building up the situation by accusing the Russian army of corruption, failure to support him and losing the Ukraine war itself. In response the Russian army announced, all Wagner members would have to sign contracts and submit to Russian army orders.
Prigozhin refused and claimed the Russian army was attacking him.Unconfirmed reports on social media also say he made contacts with Ukrainian military intelligence around January this year. Others say he was instigating forces within Russia as well against Putin. Wagner is itself a product of Russian military intelligence, the GRU and Wagner co-founder -Utkin- is a GRU special operator.
So Russian military politics was part of the plan and it’s quite possible that he may have been egged on by forces within the Russian security apparatus who are anti-Putin.
But the fact remains that no uprising took place as some expected whether from the civil or military forces.
War damage and exile
Wagener forces took down Russian helicopters and a transport aircraft killing almost forty personnel. This made accommodation by the Russian army impossible. Prigozhin was also accused of corruption : his companies sell goods apparently at inflated prices. Those contracts were canceled a week or so before Prigozhin began his march to Russia.
But the most serious accusation made by his foes is not just about the deals with Ukraine’s secret intelligence services,but the United States too. As these can’t be confirmed, they mean that whether true or not, Wagner can’t operate independently.
What didn’t happen in Russia was a general uprising and an open fracturing of the security apparatus. But it’s obvious that the Russian military is rife with clandestine deals, conspiracies and lack of a common cause and leadership.
“Protest not mutiny”
Speaking before leaving for his exile in Belarus, Prigozhin said his actions were a protest against the order to be placed under the Russian military and not an uprising. He also regretted shooting down the planes that caused so many deaths.
Meanwhile, Putin has thanked his armed forces for not just preventing an uprising but a civil war as well. And everything remains as little known as before in this “war of secrets.”
