How could the US lose? This is asked by its admirers and skeptics alike. The Taliban are pajama clad warriors with long beards and stolen guns and this is the US with trillions and the best arsenal in the world. But the reality is now before us. The US departure, defeat, withdrawal is like a make believe. Trillions have been spent, thousands killed and all one has at the end is this pathetic slinking away that is not believed by anyone. The US has set a new high in reaching the low. The great game is over and the West’s great defeat is here.
USA’s apologists are saying that while its support of the Mujahideen was great against the Soviets, this propped up pro-US government phase failed. In fact, both the USSR and US models failed. The Western model of invasion for democracy and Russia’s war for socialism have both failed. The West limps, to put it lamely.
Biden says, “After 20 years, we learned the hard way that there has never been a good time to withdraw US forces.” In other words the only answer is to stay there permanently. Some commentators have said that there are troops in South Korea and even Germany so what the hell, keep troops in Afghanistan forever to keep the West safe from Islamic terrorism. But commentators don’t have to run states and the US withdrew because other priorities are here. The biggest one is the rise of China and the need to focus all energy on battling it.
Once the US announced it would leave, the deal was over. The Taliban is more keen to gain power rather than battle the US. The West now has nothing to offer except to say that Taliban rule will be harsh. But they also conceded that, “Granted, the current-generation Taliban may – just may – prove kinder, more just and more aligned with modern, global values than their predecessors. Peace may come to Afghanistan.” The warning is that the regime will hardly be like it was under US rule and Afghanistan will again become a safe haven for Islamic terrorists.
Two realities are poking their heads out. One, the Taliban friends today are China and Russia and they have been more brutal with Islamists than the West has ever been. The Taliban knows that and help from both came in return for the promise of good “Islamists” behavior. It means no support for Uighurs and no support for the groups in Russian “stans”. Many of these were birthed by the USD when the Talibans were battling the Russians.
It means the possibility of military conflict is not entirely absent. A renegade Taliban group or cluster may cause problems but the retaliation will be many times higher because there is no one to protect and supply resources to the Taliban now. And joint Russo-China operations may be more violent as their hatred for Islamists is not ideological but functional.
The US has left at the right time because the baton of history has changed hands and we have to now wait and see what the next relay race looks like. It’s historically over for them.
