Death toll in Myanmar continues to rise as the military government and protests clash often violently. But when one side is armed and the other mot, no matter how aggressive and militant, the casualty toll is one sided. This was not a sudden reaction to a bad result where the military backed party failed to win but a long back up plan to take over in case the electoral plan of the military didn’t work out. They are panning for a long stay.
The situation has however become complicated with the attack on Chinese companies in Yangoon. It clearly puts China up as the villain of the piece. It was never only an internal problem of the Myanmar elite class belonging to the Burman ethnic group since the army and the protestorsboth belong to the same ethnicity. The main players were always the US and China and Myanmar has now turned into a messy proxy war fought on the streets. If that sounds ugly, the stakes are also high because the victims are neither China or the US but the Myanmar people.
The China question has always been there in Myanmar and it has backed several of the ethnic insurgency groups. These wars have been on for decades and have no chance of ending. For a long time, the west had no interest in Myanmar outside the economic which moved to politics as Myanmar’s economic potential began to grow.
Myanmar also has another angle which is drugs. It’s the land where the “golden triangle ‘lives and heroin had once fed the world for long. Even now, the yaba industry worth 75 billion dollars is housed in the insurgency land and Yangoon can do little about it. This drug doesn’t travel all the way to the West like heroin did and thus interest in the drug problem is less.
China is more aggressive than it has ever been internationally and the attacks on the premises in Yangoon are not going to improve that stance. Nor will it be forgiven or forgotten. The West/US is egging on the protestors and global media has imaged them as “warriors of democracy”.
But such movements have in general an intense but short life because livelihood needs of protestors emerge. The military can be made uncomfortable but not toppled which is why in the long haul they have a better chance.Its not just an armed bunch but a state paid one. Plus the business stakes are many.
But what the price that will be paid by all the quarters involved is the point. China is far too embedded to be shifted from its stake and the US has no option other than to support the anti-Chinese force. In this global battle, the proxy players are the ones who are becoming victims. Global politics probably needs a rethink as the public face of ‘democracy” has hidden the private face of anything for self- interest. Conflicts never die and that is the main issue. Smaller groups and states need to know when they are stepping on a trap set for someone else’s war.
