India had waited as wished by the US –its principal ally – before making a move in Afghanistan when Russia, China and of course helpless Pakistan were getting knee deep. Now that the US is departing in a disorderly manner none are exactly keen to stand by Ghani’s government.
Current Afghan chief Ghani is of course asking for more support from the US and India and others but are not exactly form footed. 4.5 billion dollars is military war chest plus planes etc have been promised but can it make a difference now .
The US had a long time to plan a retreat but ended with this mess so India deservedly feels anxious. Meanwhile, everyone is courting the Taliban and India wants to also particularly when to both its all about each other.
Afghans , India and Pakistan are all banking on a possible UN peacekeeping mission but it’s not going to be a single country decision and both Russia and China have their cards to spread too. But it’s not what the Talibans want and they have effectively become the government in waiting.
Some Indian diplomats argue that it should have moved in to mend fences with the Taliban long before but given India’s links with the US like Pakistan’s with China, they aren’t exactly free to do what as they wish in Afghanistan. Now the what -ifs are becoming bigger. This is particularly so as Indian diplomats are saying that the Taliban was interested in friendship with India but India didn’t reach out. Now, as they score victories in the battlefield, their tone has changed markedly.
Suhail Shaheen, a Taliban foreign policy spokesman has said, “We have political relations with Russia, Iran, and China not for one or two but many years. We have visited them many times and assured them that we won’t let Afghan territory be used against them. India was siding with the government installed by foreigners. They are not with us. If they stick to their policy of supporting a government imposed on Afghans, then maybe they should be worried. That is a wrong policy which will not serve them.”
The Taliban has directly stated that India is providing arms to Kabul . India is hoping that the US government will keep Ghani in power somehow. In the fast changing situation, if nothing else, no single dominant power will be playing and in that polo match neither India nor Pakistan are major players.
The Taliban is clearly stronger than the Ghani government and this is one of the reasons why Russia and China are backing it. The US is disliked by everyone and even the Afghan people dislike them along with the current government. Why India chose to line up behind the losers is not difficult to guess which is to keep Pakistan at bay. But its main source of strength the US is itself not in a position to dictate terms making its gamble in Kabul a very risky one for India for whom certainty is certain.
