Around this time five years back a café in Gulshan was attacked by Islamist jihadists and many sat down to declare that Islamists were about to take over Bangladesh. Western media were the shrillest, some even wondering if Bangladesh had become a failed state. The jihadists by then had killed several of the hostages.
But all this lasted only till the morning when a counter-terrorist army unit took the lot down, killing almost all. The rest were arrested and a clamp down began on the Violent extremists all over Bangladesh. . But the damage to the psyche was done and fear became part of life for a while.
The Government however continued its counter–terrorism operations. Soon, several more raids were conducted and the death number of Jihadists till date is nearly hundred officially. While there were active engagements a year after the first encounter they are not there now.
However, that doesn’t mean that Islamist Violent Extremism ( IVE) has disappeared as such movements rarely do. In view of the internet recruiting and propaganda is on and one presumes many are joining too. Nevertheless, this too is a fact that no serious actions have been noted since the first purge began and given CT capacity in surveillance, no serious attack is envisaged.
Security analysis shows that Islamist extremist is on the decline partly due to Covid but many other factors are at work. Various governments all over the world have become much better at surveillance and action. There was a period of denial for many but that is over and most governments have become sensitive to the IVE threat. As intelligence penetration has intensified and the threat identified, the best days of IVE are probably behind.
For Bangladesh the threat is less for one major reason. Almost all major VE / Terrorist threats are linked to resistance to invasions or state making violence. A review of most groups shows this. Thus the Talebans, the Al-Qaeda, LTTE, or the IRA are all linked to foreign threats. This is recognized by the West but little can be done as the foreign policy imperatives make them invaders in self-interest. Thus these major VEs are in response to invasion. The islamist part functions as the cultural mobilizer but the roots are self-defensive to invasion albeit violent and in the end destructive and brutal.
Another form of VE exists which is of the fringe variety and there are many but they are neither a major threat nor a large-scale movement. Three examples can be seen. The Shining Path movement of Latin America, the Islamic jihadist movement in the West and the Red Army in Japan.
These movements were rooted elsewhere where the social cause also existed but this was absent in the fringe where these movements grew. Hence, after a period of time, they fizzled out. Protection of territory plays a key role and to that extent the Shanti Bahini of the CHT had significance but its largely over so the Islamists Jihadists can never be serious as no territory issue is involved.
That doesn’t mean the guard has to be lowered but to be logical and analytical rather than be sensational when discussing the problem to ensure a safe Bangladesh.
