Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security Studies (BIPSS) President of Major General (Retd) ANM Muniruzzaman has said geopolitical tensions will increase in the Indo-Pacific and beyond, which will severely impact developing countries in the region.
As the US and China are important partners of Bangladesh, the country must ensure a strategic balance amid these tensions, but that largely depends on its political and diplomatic prudence, the analyst said.
He made the observation following the visit of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, the third most important member of the US administration, to Taipei.
Highlighting the potential geostrategic consequences of the visit, Muniruzzaman said there will be a serious downturn in the relations between the US and China. “It might hit the lowest point of bilateral ties between them.”
“The potential spillover effect threatens to affect trade – international trade, particularly the global supply chain,” Muniruzzaman noted.
He said the world is already under tremendous global political turbulence because of the Ukraine war. “It can hardly take any risk, which involves major powers like the US and China.”
China may implement more assertive policies against Taiwan and Taiwan will be heavily affected economically if China does so, he added.
“It may make all Taiwanese investments in China more difficult. China is Taiwan’s largest trading partner ($193.51 billion). So, any disruption will have severe economic consequences for Taiwan,” Muniruzzaman said.
“Trade war may emerge, and as a result, other countries will face bitter economic consequences. The whole world will be drastically affected in terms of economy,” he added.
Taiwan is the world’s largest producer of semiconductors. Any disruptions will have severe consequences on global electronic goods production, the BIPSS president said.
China has already increased their military presence in maritime and airspace, which also includes the sphere of Taipei, bringing further instability to the region.
This geostrategic pressure might also befall Sino-Indian border security, Muniruzzaman said. “If that happens, Bangladesh may be in a difficult position to maintain its stable economy and supply chain.”
Mega projects in Bangladesh will get disrupted if China prioritises the Taiwan issue, he added.
China is one of the most influential trading partners of Bangladesh, Muniruzzaman said, adding that bilateral trade between China and Bangladesh stands at $16 billion.
Any disruption in bilateral trade will hurt the Bangladesh economy, the BIPSS president added.
