According to a recent estimate by the Policy Research Institute (PRI), in the current FY2022-23, the National Board of Revenue (NBR) may face a revenue deficit of Tk54,600 crore in comparison to its set target.
The revenue collection target for NBR for the current financial year was set at Tk3.70 lakh crore.
However, after analysing the collection trends in the first nine months of the ongoing fiscal year (FY), the PRI has estimated that NBR will be able to collect Tk3.15 lakh crore.
This estimate was presented by PRI’s Research Director Dr MA Razzaque at a pre-budget press briefing and discussion held in Dhaka on Sunday (14 May).
The event was presided over by PRI Chairman Dr Zaidi Sattar and moderated by Executive Director Dr Ahsan H Mansur.
One of the conditions set by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for lending $4.7 billion to Bangladesh was for the country to increase the tax-to-GDP ratio by 0.5% in the next fiscal.
The international lender had estimated that NBR may manage to collect Tk3.36 lakh crore in this fiscal.
As per PRI data, the revenue collection in the current financial year will be Tk21.40 thousand crore less than the estimates made by IMF.
The PRI has blamed NBR’s overall lack of capacity and implementation of needed reforms for failing to meet the revenue collection target.
Moreover, the institute has identified declining remittance inflow, export earnings and forex reserves, high inflation, and low revenue collection as major setbacks for the country’s economy.
Dr Razzaque stated that the country’s economy is currently under pressure, while Dr Mansur commented that the macroeconomic situation of the country may go out of control in the next five to seven months.
He further stated that the lack of confidence in the financial sector is not going to go away anytime soon, and money laundering is likely to increase instead of dropping.
Dr Sattar and Dr Razzaque also expressed their concerns regarding the lack of confidence in the country’s current economic situation.
Finally, Mansur suggested that the government must take immediate steps to address these issues, especially as the next national election is right around the corner.
