There is a lot of fire in the air in West Bengal as elections there draw close. It’s very interesting to observe as an outsider how another set of people to whom many feel close to are going through elections to elect a new set of leaders, supposedly very different from the ones that are in power now. In lay people’s terms, can BJP topple Mamata Banerjee of Trinamool Congress and make it to power? In West Bengal and some Bangladeshi hearts, it’s become an issue of identity and the call of the soul of Bangla. But is that the reality?
BJP: Banging on the door
Mamata and her Trinamool Congress have been in power for long, resisting the Central tendencies like her predecessors, CPM and Congress in Bengal. However, the rise of BJP has also signaled the rise of centralism which was inevitable. BJP epitomizes that varied trend in India whereby the South is relatively fee from the North but North belongs to the BJP. The East had been a non-North Indian sanctuary but that is under attack now. Tripura showed the way that the old fashioned Bangla has changed and many combos are possible now. In Tripura, BJP reigns, its heart now split between North and the East.
In West Bengal, crowds are gathering at the BJP door and one shouldn’t be in denial about it. Mamata faces more pressure than she has ever felt electorally. And many now feel that future lies with Delhi not Kolkata. This is what is missed in the discussion. That Bengal can’t improve radically in the economic sector without siding with the BJP. This is what many of the middle class feels, hence the procession towards the BJP.
However, polls don’t show that the news is that bad for Mamata. According to several estimates, Trinamool will lose many seats, BJP will gain many but power will not be transferred to it. SA weakened Mamata will continue but the bells of the future are clearly ringing.
And in Bangladesh…
Several Bangladeshis are concerned that “Bengal” will change and become non-Bengali – read BJP led North India influenced- and its essential cultural roots will be lost. To them eternal “Bengal” lives in Kolkata and that will be taken away by the BJP and the Bengali soul will be lost. One key element to be lost is “secularism”. As BJP is not secular and TC is supposedly so, this is the anxiety mongering that is on. But is it a major issue for Bangladeshis ?
West Bengal is not an issue in Bangladesh but India is. If TC falls in WB, it doesn’t make much of a difference but Indian character of the state changing does. And it’s here that the difference lies. There is and probably never was a “Bengal” in colonial India. The attempt to form a United Bengal was killed by Congress including Bengal Congress in 1947. So any argument that the soul is split is a fake. It was split long before after 1793 when zamindary system formalized the supremacy of the Kolkata class.
Hence the fight against colonialism also involved the fight against their primary agents, the Kolkata class. Thus, there never was a history of a common Bengal. It may exist in literature and Tagore songs but not history.
Current concrete level
At a more concrete and current level, the policies that affect Bangladesh are made in Delhi and not Kolkata. This includes the CAA which must be helping BJP win elections but has created deep resentment in Bangladesh. The recent reaction to Modi during his visit showed what Bangladesh in general feels about him. He no longer represents India but BJP and that’s not a gain for him or India in the neighbourhood. But it does look like BJP is going to be in power there for the long haul.
Teesta water is often mentioned by the BJP which they say is not possible to deliver because Mamata doesn’t want it. It’s quite possible but it’s equally possible that if BJP comes to power in Bengal, they will use the same excuse not to relent. Thus a switch in power in India or Bengal won’t make a difference for Bangladesh.
Trade wise, China is so far ahead that there is no competition with India and none are going to be very accommodative. Bangladesh stands to gain little from either and as previous experiences show, Bangladesh needs to run and none will come and pick it up. So internationally, tilting doesn’t matter.
Kolkata is a major beneficiary of Bangladesh visitors for commercial and medical reasons. Bangladesh offers very poor quality services in the health sector and that has little chance of improving. But if BJP takes Kolkata, people will visit less and many will shift to Chennai if they can afford the plane fare. The better off doesn’t go to India but Singapore and Thailand etc. So the affected may be the lower middle seeking foreign treatment. In the end, demand and supply will decide what will happen, not the nature of the government.
The impact of a government change in Kolkata is really not going to be noticed much. It was not much noticed even when BJP came to power in Delhi. The anti-Indian lobby is here in Bangladesh but so is the business lobby. Borders and border killing are both here, CAA is still here and so are regular threats by BJP leaders. But so is China and the laws of international relations will prevail in every case.
West Bengal politics doesn’t matter now and won’t matter in the future, no matter who is in power.
Afsan Chowdhury is a journalist, columnist and liberation war researcher. He received Bangla Academy Award in 2018 for his contribution to the liberation war literature.
