Indian PM Modi sacked 12 ministers including the health, the information and the information technology minister in what seemed a tough way to divert blame from himself for the Covid mess. 43 new faces are in but portfolio and minister changing isn’t really the best way to handle a worsening pandemic, say Indian analysts. The problem is structural. India is a federated reality while BJP is life and death committed to central rule mimicking ancient lore of One India and Modi as its master. Fact and fiction are at war here.
While Health Minister Harsh Vardhan and his deputy Ashwini Chaube are out, the pandemic is not only there very much but the third wave is now raring to go. India has the dubious credit of having produced the Delta variant now the globally dominant virus and has the Delta + variant waiting in the wings.
Covid has hit Modi hard and approval ratings have tumbled to its lowest since coming to power. While these drops are always temporary, the fact is, it’s a live report on his performance and public perception. The public were also duped by self –deception. The BJP sold idea that India is one of the greatest, best and most powerful countries in the world was eagerly swallowed by average Indians ready to believe a political and historical aspiration.
Hence, the images of death, and suffering due to corona were a huge shock. Ill-equipped health infrastructure and the country’s inability to handle the crisis were so unexpected that its hit people more than the GOI expected. The image building has now extracted a big price in disappointment and disapproval.
Humbled by the pandemic
The images of people dying as they wait for oxygen supply or corpses floating in rivers thrown by families unable to burn them have become a permanent collective psychological scar. India gloated about its capacity as the world’s largest vaccine producer but that sector stalled and India was humbled as it sought vaccines elsewhere. It has been a terrible summer for the Indian mind, body and soul.
The medical crisis is actually an indicator of its lack of capacity to handle any large-scale crisis as a state. While it’s a large economy, it’s neither efficient nor well resourced compared to its richer brothers. If anything it has resembled its poorer South Asian cousins more than it would like to admit.
Official figures say that more than 30 million are positive, almost 30 million have recovered while the death toll is around 400,000. Though grassroots organizers say it’s very under-reported, there is no way of confirming this. But the current number is dismal even as it stands now.
As expected, the economy has been damaged and the great stride forward which Modi promised lies in tatters. Unemployment and inflation are big but the truly big challenge is to create jobs in the days of corona.
While the world certainly sees it and many in India do too, BJP remains committed to political objectives. This went on even though those very acts were responsible for its second wave. BJP’s electoral spree in the middle of the pandemic did much to promote the spreading. So did large scale religious gatherings. It’s also speculated now that even the current ministry reshuffle had more to do with the elections scheduled next year in the critical states of Uttar Pradesh, Uttrakhand, Punjab and Goa.
Uttar Pradesh is the most important state to win and there is no doubt that it is BJP’s priority right now having almost 15% share of the Lower House. Modi has already filled up his cabinet with more from UP than before. It makes political sense but how it will fare as far as managing Covid is concerned, one is not sure.
The corona transition in politics
This pandemic is reshaping the way the world behaves and thinks more than any other event since Hitler opened its doors. WW 2 redid the world and ushered in changes, some positive, some traumatizing. The idea that old ideas about governance holds permanently was never valid as much of normal life as the world knew it is disappearing. Those who are able to and willing to will survive but not all will.
The concept of traditional crowd based politicking which much of the world followed is losing credibility and a democratically elected government is as vulnerable as an autocratic one. What matters is the capacity to handle the pandemic. Political priorities have been replaced by functional ones and that is the message India doesn’t seem to have heard very well.
Winning the national elections may seem a very small achievement if Indian can’t win the fight against Covid. Till India learns to accept it’s under a threat, India can’t help itself.
Afsan Chowdhury is a journalist, columnist and liberation war researcher. He received Bangla Academy Award in the year 2018 for his contribution to the liberation war literature.
