Once India worried only about Pakistan but now its headaches is spread across the region. The recent border cease-fire with Pakistan indicates that Pakistan is only one of its problems. Maybe the biggest but others are there too.
For the moment, Myanmar doesn’t look good for India. It had hoped that support for the army would bring in large dividends. This included greater influence in the Yangoon army which also would translate into lesser influence of China. Thus, even after the crackdown in Yangoon, India has continued its support. If India condemned the junta’s actions, it could jeopardize its leverage.
India declined to add its name to the statement condemning the takeover and attended the Armed Forces Day parade. It even asked Manipur which borders Myanmar to turn away refugees which was later revoked. For the moment India is hoping that diplomatic counsel will prevail but it has not worked till date.
Modi’s Bangladesh visit should also be an eye-opener. The ferocity of resistance by the Islamist was high even on its 50th anniversary and police action little in comparison. Though Indian media called it “Pakistani” led, fact remains it isn’t and reflects a growing ant-Indian hostility here. India rode rough with Bangladesh on the CAA Bill in 2019 but it angered the Bangladesh government. Diplomatic visits were dropped even. Thus Sk. Hasina’s position is also clear. The demonstrations were the best possible signal that Bangladesh is not happy. And unhappiness means more China in Dhaka.
In Afghanistan, the situation looks grim for India. A political settlement would strengthen the Taliban which means Pakistan and if that fails there will be more war, strengthening the Taliban. U.S. withdrawal will mean less India and that’s a big hobble. Meanwhile the Indo-Nepal border crisis meanwhile, goes on.
Indian policy is based on perceived permanent superiority in the region. India had focused on Pakistan which paid rich dividends but hostility with the other countries are now taking its toll. Trade and commerce are doing well but India may also be seeking a seal of assent that it’s the big power and can take on China as the region’s leader.
The problem is, the region no longer exists. SAARC wasn’t doing too well but had the stamp of a regional body which India did best to kill. BIMSTEC has failed in the sense India wants it and claiming leadership on the basis of a body that creates no enthusiasm among people or the bureaucrats is tough. Thus the gel which will bind the region is missing.
In some ways India needs to face two realities. A. It has to live with China and not compete with it. Events show it can’t win and there is no need to. B. The region really is not politically inspired but an economic one so it wants to call its own shots. And if snuggling to China helps that, it will do that.
South Asia in general needs some reality checking.
