As summer approaches, the sweltering heat of Chaitra looms over Bangladesh, pushing both public life and agricultural fields to their limits. With rising temperatures, the demand for electricity is also set to surge.
Energy Adviser FouzulKabir Khan on February 5 said that electricity demand is expected to reach 15,700 MW during Ramadan, and may rise further to 18,000 MW in the peak summer months when irrigation demand increases.
Despite Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB) data indicating a total installed capacity of 27,790 MW, the country faces persistent fuel shortages, creating a major obstacle to stable electricity supply.
Daily load shedding could range between 700 MW and 1,400 MW during this period and to mitigate the shortfall, the government plans to import four LNG cargoes to meet the additional demand for power generation, according to the adviser.
However, while fossil fuels remain central to the country’s energy strategy-relying heavily on gas, coal, and furnace oil-the role of renewable energy remains uncertain.
The deposed Awami League government set an ambitious target of generating 40% of the country’s electricity from renewable sources by 2041. However, the Sustainable and Renewable Energy Development Authority (SREDA) reports that the country’s current on-grid renewable energy capacity, including solar, wind, and hydro, stands at just 1,176 MW, increasing to 1,557 MW when off-grid systems are included.
Currently, the contribution of renewables to the national grid is below 5%. A number of other issues also make the target of 40% a far cry given the current state of the power sector..
These issues include non-alignment of major plans prepared by the Ministry of Power Energy and Mineral Resources (MoPEMR) and Ministry of Environment and Climate Change (MoECC) with regard to the target, a number of non-renewable energy mixes considered ‘clean energy’ along with renewable energy under the plan prepared by the MoPEMR, and lack of clarity about the disaggregated amount for 40 percent to be generated from renewables, since the projected demand for electricity in 2041 is questionable, according to the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD).
Experts argue that Bangladesh’s heavy reliance on energy imports-both fossil fuels and electricity-necessitates a stronger focus on domestic renewable energy.
Increasing renewable energy capacity would help reduce dependence on international markets, lessen import costs, and preserve foreign currency reserves.
During 2022-2028, the government would have to spend over $228 million for importing LNG, which would be required to meet the domestic demand, according to CPD [Khondaker GolamMoazzem and Moumita A. Mallick].
In addition, a report from the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) estimates that a more ambitious clean energy capacity target of 40% by 2041 (without storage facilities) would require an annual investment of $1.53 billion to $1.71 billion from 2024 through to 2041.
ShafiqulAlam, Lead Energy Analyst for IEEFA Bangladesh, identified high import duties on renewable energy equipment as a key issue.
He said, “High import duties pose a major challenge for small-scale – rooftop solar, mainly the decentralised -implementation. Since we import the equipment, there is a specific import duty involved. Although it is feasible when calculated based on the levelised cost of energy, this additional cost remains a significant obstacle.”
He mentioned that the process of getting finance for it is a bit complicated, especially the green finance fund of Bangladesh Bank is a bit difficult to access.
Solar irrigation, an area with significant potential, also faces hurdles. “Solar irrigation systems operate for only 120-140 days a year. The challenge lies in making use of the infrastructure for the rest of the year to ensure commercial viability,” explained Alam. “A more structured business model is needed as an alternative to costly diesel-based irrigation.”
Land scarcity poses another problem for large-scale solar projects. He pointed out that acquiring land is highly complex due to fragmented ownership.
“To generate 100 MW of solar power, about 300 acres of land is required. However, securing this land is incredibly difficult as it often belongs to 50-100 different owners,” he noted, adding that the government could have allocated state-owned land for such projects.
A revised renewable energy policy is in the works, and there is discussion about offering tax waivers for decentralised rooftop solar systems.
Alam suggested that Bangladesh Bank should consider creating a dedicated financing scheme for renewable energy and that SREDA should actively motivate industry owners to promote adoption.
“The most practical step would be to install 1,000-2,000 MW of rooftop solar as soon as possible,” he recommended.
Dr SM Nasif Shams, associate professor and director of the Institute of Energy at Dhaka University, as well as a board member of SREDA, highlighted growing international interest in Bangladesh’s renewables sector.
“Several foreign companies are eager to invest. Previously, there was hesitation and bias, but now we must be careful to retain this interest and ensure steady progress,” he said.
Shams stressed that political uncertainty should not deter progress. “Governments may change, but renewable energy projects need long-term commitment. Even if large-scale projects take time, smaller initiatives should continue without disruption,” he added.
“Many projects initiated under the previous government are at various stages of completion and should be prioritised.”
